Friday, February 21, 2014

Ukraine: About to Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory?

Wooooooooooooow!

It has been some wild times since my last update.

There have been virtually running battles between the police and the protestors.  At least 100 people have died.  The police took the Maidan and then the protestors took it back. 

Whole sections of Ukraine aligned with the protestors.  Police and interior troops from the West moved to Kiev in support of Euromaidan.  

A truce was called and it fell apart.  

Yanukovich replaced the head of the army.

 The mayor of Kiev resigned from the Party of Regions. 

Another truce was called and Yanukovich seems to have caved.

The Rada already passed the change to the constitution back to the 2004 version, making the president more like a European one than like the American or Russian.  It also passed a law freeing Timoshenko!  It also passed a blanket amnesty for the protestors, too.

Yanukovich announced there would be an early presidential election in December.

It was also announced the opposition would be forming a government.

The protestors just have to clear the streets and get back to normal life.

The europeans did the brokering on this one.  It would seem that the protestors won.  They are going to form the government, push Yanukovich out of power in December altogether, got the Constitution revised, were granted amnesty without any reservations, had the Interior minister fired and even got Timoshenko out of the klink.

Yanukovich has even left the city for Kharkiv. 

Euromaidan won!  Even over my expectations! 

And yet...

When Yatsenyuk, Klitschko et al came to the platform to announce the deal, they were shouted off the stage.  They were then forced back on and humiliated: they had to pray for forgiveness for having met and spoken to Yanukovich.  

The protestors then demanded that Yanukovich resign immediately.  They would not give up the Maidan without his resignation.  They would stay and fight.

The European response is best captured by this little clip:


Support the deal or you'll all be dead.  This is from a Polish diplomat.  They Poles have had the Euromaidan's back more than any other european nation and they are telling the Euromaidan to accept the deal.  or they're toast.



The smart thing is to take the deal.  They've won!  The stubborn Ukrainian thing would be to refuse: we don't negotiate!!!  If the Euromaidan takes that stance, they have lost.  They cannot win against the army.  The Berkut and the Interior Ministry troops are a joke in comparison.  

While I understand their passion and anger, I hope they do not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

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